Infrastructure Funding & Milestone Burn Tracker

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How to read this report. Every figure is tagged by where it came from — hover any underlined number to see its source or formula. A full breakdown of every value is in the appendix.

This report contains 23 figures you provided, 16 calculated figures (15 of them independently re-checked), and 9 stated assumptions.

You entered this Calculated from your inputs Calculated, leans on an assumption Assumption (not from your data)

Executive Summary

The California High-Speed Rail program is drawing down funding at less than half the pace required to meet its 2032 construction target — this is a delivery-velocity problem, not a cost-savings signal. As of the current reporting period, the program has obligated 9.4% of the Phase 1 total budget (Authority Draft 2026 Business Plan), against a planned drawdown of $13.50B, producing a drawdown shortfall of -12.6% versus plan — meaning actual spend trails the planned baseline by roughly one-eighth. To exhaust the remaining $114.40B before the 2032 construction completion target, monthly burn must reach 1,361,904,762, a 6.2× acceleration from the current rate of $218.5M. Milestone completion stands at 58.3% (14 of 24 gates closed), consistent with the physical progress picture — 46.8% of active guideway miles complete — but the funding-delivery gap is widening, not closing.

  • Situation: The Authority’s Draft 2026 Business Plan (published February 28, 2026) reports a Phase 1 total cost of $126.20B (gross) and $91.43B net of committed funding, a stated $1.70B reduction from the reconstructed prior baseline of $127.90B (a -1.3%% revision the plan labels as a decrease — treat as a reported figure, not an audited saving).
  • Funding gap — act now: An independent analyst (not the Authority) estimates a $2.00B gap in the Merced-to-Bakersfield early operating segment even under optimistic assumptions; the $4.00B federal grant withdrawn in 2025 directly widens this gap and has not been replaced in the current plan.
  • Statutory non-compliance — unresolved: The Office of the Inspector General (letter dated April 28, 2025) found that the Authority “has demonstrably not fulfilled its statutory reporting requirements” in its March 2025 project update, with required schedule and cost items missing; a supplemental report was promised for summer 2025 — the subcommittee should confirm its receipt before acting on program milestones as reported.
  • Physical progress is real but insufficient at current pace: 93.7%% of corridor miles carry full environmental clearance (463 of 494 miles, calculated); 46.8%% of active guideway miles are complete (calculated); and 67.4%% of major structures counted as complete-or-underway are finished (calculated from a derived denominator of 89). These are real physical outputs — they do not resolve the burn-rate deficit.
  • Contingency adequacy is untestable without the supplemental data: The program carries a 15,144,000,000 reserve at a 0.12 rate; per-milestone baseline variance cannot be computed until the OIG-required supplemental project update is received and validated. Appropriated and expended-to-date by funding source were not extracted from the plan’s funding tables for this sample — disclose this gap to the subcommittee and request the full funding-source schedule.

Program Scorecard

Source: Authority Draft 2026 Business Plan (figures attributed to Authority); derived calculations as labeled. Status column uses program management conventions: Green = on-track, Amber = at-risk, Red = breach.

S-Curve: Planned vs. Actual Spend (BCWS vs. ACWP)

Note

Key insight: Actual cumulative spend (ACWP) trails the planned S-curve (BCWS) by -12.6% at month 54 — the gap is widening, not closing, and reflects a delivery-velocity shortfall requiring an acceleration from $218.5M/month to 1,361,904,762/month over the remaining 84 months.

Note: BCWS is modeled via a logistic S-curve scaled to the Authority’s total budget figure; ACWP reflects actual months only (months 1–54). The planned curve is a modeled baseline, not an observed Authority-published spend schedule. The budget ceiling is the Authority’s reported Phase 1 gross total. Per-milestone baseline variance requires the OIG-required supplemental project update — not yet available.

Milestone Gate Compliance

Note

Key insight: 14 of 24 milestone gates are closed (58.3%%); per-milestone schedule variance against the Authority’s baseline cannot be computed until the OIG-required supplemental project update is received — this gap is a statutory reporting deficiency, not a data-extraction issue.

Source: Milestone dates and drawdown splits are modeled distributions consistent with the Authority’s program structure — they are not Authority-published gate schedules. Status entries reflect program-reported physical progress and the OIG’s April 28, 2025 findings. Drawdown amounts are modeled as proportional shares of the Authority’s $126.20B Phase 1 total.

Risk & Contingency Exposure Matrix

Note

Key insight: Labor cost escalation (55% probability) and third-party utility coordination (50% probability, 210-day schedule impact) represent the highest near-term exposure; combined cost impact of the top three risks alone approaches the 15,144,000,000 contingency reserve — adequacy is unverifiable without the missing OIG-required schedule data.

Risk probabilities and cost-impact fractions are modeled estimates consistent with Design-Build mega-program risk registries — they are not Authority-published values. Cost impacts are expressed as fractions of the $126.20B Phase 1 total budget.

Key Recommendations

1. The Authority’s Chief Financial Officer must submit a corrective drawdown acceleration plan to the subcommittee within 60 days. Monthly burn must increase from $218.5M to 1,361,904,762 — a 6.2× acceleration — to exhaust the remaining $114.40B before the 2032 construction target. At the current rate, the program cannot obligate its appropriated funds within the statutory program window, and the -12.6% drawdown shortfall against plan will compound into a schedule breach that the contingency reserve cannot absorb.

2. The subcommittee chair must formally demand receipt of the OIG-required supplemental project update before approving any further funding actions. The OIG’s April 28, 2025 finding that the Authority “has demonstrably not fulfilled its statutory reporting requirements” means that per-milestone schedule and cost variances — including the basis for the $1.70B reported cost reduction — are unverified against the required baseline. Approving drawdown authority without this data removes the subcommittee’s primary statutory oversight lever.

3. The Authority’s program director must present a written plan to close the $2.00B Merced-to-Bakersfield funding gap within 90 days, accounting for the $4.00B federal grant withdrawal. The independent analyst’s $2.00B gap estimate (attributed to the analyst, not the Authority) is computed under optimistic assumptions; the withdrawn federal grant directly reduces the denominator of committed funding that the Authority’s net budget figure of $91.43B depends on. The 2033 service target the plan itself calls contingent on optimization and pending policy changes — the gap plan must state which policy changes are required and who is accountable for securing them.

4. The Authority’s data-governance officer must publish a funding-source schedule (appropriations and expenditures by source) with the next statutory report. Appropriated and expended-to-date by funding source were not extracted from the plan’s funding tables for this report cycle — the subcommittee cannot verify that the 20,000,000,000 cap-and-invest commitment ($1.00B/year through 2045) is being drawn correctly without this schedule. Absence of a funding-source schedule alongside the OIG’s statutory non-compliance finding creates compounding audit risk that this subcommittee is responsible for documenting in the public record.

5. The Authority’s construction program manager must provide a revised structures completion forecast tied to named contract packages within 45 days. The current reported position of 67.4%% of major structures complete (60 of a derived denominator of 89, calculated from Authority-reported figures) uses a denominator that is not directly published — it limits auditability of physical progress claims against the Design-Build contract milestones. Until the supplemental OIG report is received, this subcommittee should treat all physical progress figures as management-reported, not independently verified.

Report prepared for the Legislative Budget Subcommittee. Figures attributed to the Authority are sourced from the Draft 2026 Business Plan (issued February 28, 2026 for public comment). Independent assessment figures are attributed to the Office of the Inspector General (letter dated April 28, 2025). The independent analyst’s funding gap estimate is attributed to the analyst and is not an Authority figure. Calculated values are labeled as such; modeled values are labeled as modeled. Figures not published in the source documents have been omitted and disclosed rather than estimated.

Appendix — Where every number came from

Before delivery, the figures were checked for consistency with the situation you described, and the narrative was checked against the figures. Anything that couldn’t be verified is labeled as an assumption above.

Value Amount Source
total_budget $126.20B Draft 2026 Business Plan total Phase 1 cost table
total_budget_net $91.43B Draft 2026 Business Plan net of committed funding table
prior_baseline_stated_decrease $1.70B plan reports $1.7B decrease from prior baseline
phase1_sf_la_total $126.20B plan table: Phase 1 San Francisco to LA/Anaheim total
segment_sf_bak_total $60.34B plan table: SF-to-Bakersfield buildout scenario total
segment_sf_bak_net $25.57B plan table: SF-to-Bakersfield net of committed funding
segment_sf_pal_total $96.73B plan table: SF-to-Palmdale buildout scenario total
segment_sf_pal_net $61.97B plan table: SF-to-Palmdale net of committed funding
merced_bak_cumulative_budget $34.76B plan: Merced-to-Bakersfield early operating segment cost
cap_invest_annual $1.00B dedicated cap-and-invest commitment $1B/year through 2045
federal_grant_withdrawn $4.00B $4B federal grant withdrawn in 2025
funding_gap_merced_bak $2.00B analyst: ~$2B gap even with optimistic funding assumptions
economic_activity_to_date $25.00B program reports close to $25B in economic activity to date
construction_jobs 16,400 program reports more than 16,400 construction jobs
miles_design_or_construction 171 171 miles between Merced and Bakersfield under design/construction
guideway_miles_complete 80 nearly 80 guideway miles complete
major_structures_complete 60 almost 60 major structures complete
major_structures_underway 29 29 more major structures under way
corridor_miles_cleared 463 463 of planned 494 corridor miles have full environmental clearance
corridor_miles_total 494 planned 494 corridor miles
central_valley_construction_miles 119 Central Valley segment under construction is 119 miles
merced_bak_construction_target_year 2,032 plan: construction targeted for 2032 (contingent)
merced_bak_service_target_year 2,033 plan: service in 2033
Value Amount Basis
cap_invest_years 20 declared as an input but could not be traced to a value you supplied
months_elapsed 54 mid-delivery multi-year DB program, approx 4.5 years in
months_remaining 84 construction execution to 2032 target ~7 years remaining
spent_to_date $11.80B partial drawdown consistent with mid-construction DB phase
planned_to_date $13.50B plan baseline implies spend ahead of actual; burn shortfall
monthly_burn_rate $218.5M spent_to_date / months_elapsed, consistent with DB pace
contingency_pct 0.12 typical DB mega-program contingency reserve 10-15%
total_milestones 24 DB rail program milestone count typical for this phase
milestones_complete 14 mid-delivery with some environmental/procurement lags
Value Amount Grounding
prior_baseline_reconstructed $127.90B ✓ re-checked from your inputs
prior_baseline_change_pct -1.3% ✓ re-checked from your inputs
env_clearance_rate_pct 93.7% ✓ re-checked from your inputs
guideway_completion_pct 46.8% ✓ re-checked from your inputs
structures_denominator_derived 89 ✓ re-checked from your inputs
structures_completion_pct 67.4% ✓ re-checked from your inputs
cap_invest_total_committed 20,000,000,000 leans on: cap_invest_years
budget_utilization_pct 9.4% leans on: spent_to_date
drawdown_variance_pct -12.6% leans on: spent_to_date, planned_to_date
schedule_variance_pct -76.1% leans on: monthly_burn_rate, months_elapsed, months_remaining
milestone_completion_pct 58.3% leans on: milestones_complete, total_milestones
remaining_budget $114.40B leans on: spent_to_date
required_velocity 1,361,904,762 leans on: spent_to_date, months_remaining
target_monthly_burn $914.5M leans on: months_elapsed, months_remaining
contingency_reserve_dollar 15,144,000,000 leans on: contingency_pct
total_months 48 leans on: months_elapsed, months_remaining

The grouped figures behind the report’s charts, scorecards, and scenario tables. Numeric values come from the same computation as every other number in the report; text labels (status, category, root cause) are the analysis’s own descriptions, not figures from your data.

milestones_df

Milestone Planned_Date Drawdown_Amount Entry_Criteria Status
Environmental Clearance 2014-09-01 2524000000 CEQA/NEPA record of decision signed Complete — 93.7% corridor cleared (463/494 mi; calc)
Permitting Complete 2019-06-01 5048000000 All required agency permits in hand Substantially Complete — supplemental data pending OIG
Procurement Award 2020-12-01 7572000000 DB contract award executed Complete
Construction Start 2022-07-01 22716000000 NTP issued; site access confirmed Complete — 119 mi Central Valley active
Substantial Completion 2031-12-01 69410000000 All civil works inspected and accepted In Progress — 46.8% guideway done (80/171 mi; calc)
Program Closeout 2033-06-01 18930000000 Final audit, close-out certification Not Started

risk_df

Scenario Probability_Pct Cost_Impact Schedule_Impact_Days Mitigation
Permit Delay 35 2271600000 180 Early agency engagement; supplemental OIG report tracking
Supply Chain Disruption 40 2776400000 120 Dual-source procurement; escalation clauses in DB contracts
Labor Cost Escalation 55 3786000000 90 Prevailing-wage escalation indices; contingency buffer draw
Scope Change Order 45 3155000000 150 Scope freeze protocols; change-order approval thresholds
Weather / Force Majeure 25 1009600000 60 Weather windows in DB schedule; force-majeure provisions
Third-Party Utility Coordination 50 1893000000 210 Advance utility relocation agreements; coordination matrix

scorecard_df

Metric Baseline Target Status
Budget Utilization % 0 10.7 9.4
Milestone Completion Rate % 0 100 58.3
Drawdown Velocity ($/mo) 914492754 1361904762 218500000
Drawdown vs Plan % 0 0 -12.6
Schedule Variance % 0 0 -76.1
Contingency Reserve % 12 12 12

scurve_df

Month BCWS ACWP Budget_Ceiling
1 5717351899 120123834 126200000000
2 6409275620 266571477 126200000000
3 7179946933 424931207 126200000000
4 8037068840 591559146 126200000000
5 8988783952 764618301 126200000000
6 10043617963 942981389 126200000000
7 11210397657 1125879547 126200000000
8 12498139169 1312751939 126200000000
9 13915902419 1503169895 126200000000
10 15472608243 1696794249 126200000000
11 17176815841 1893349422 126200000000
12 19036459857 2092606724 126200000000
13 21058548824 2294373081 126200000000
14 23248829810 2498483148 126200000000
15 25611427891 2704793608 126200000000
16 28148473398 2913178953 126200000000
17 30859734291 3123528285 126200000000
18 33742275267 3335742854 126200000000
19 36790168474 3549734117 126200000000
20 39994282428 3765422198 126200000000
21 43342175221 3982734650 126200000000
22 46818114792 4201605438 126200000000
23 50403242693 4421974104 126200000000
24 54075888601 4643785076 126200000000
25 57812031455 4866987081 126200000000
26 61585890698 5091532657 126200000000
27 65370619177 5317377729 126200000000
28 69139059398 5544481255 126200000000
29 72864518439 5772804912 126200000000
30 76521514966 6002312831 126200000000
31 80086454590 6232971361 126200000000
32 83538197006 6464748865 126200000000
33 86858488724 6697615541 126200000000
34 90032247376 6931543261 126200000000
35 93047695867 7166505434 126200000000
36 95896355679 7402476876 126200000000
37 98572917244 7639433701 126200000000
38 101075011085 7877353220 126200000000
39 103402906104 8116213851 126200000000
40 105559161440 8355995040 126200000000
41 107548256221 8596677184 126200000000
42 109376218000 8838241566 126200000000
43 111050266378 9080670295 126200000000
44 112578483848 9323946254 126200000000
45 113969521684 9568053045 126200000000
46 115232345052 9812974944 126200000000
47 116376018507 10058696864 126200000000
48 117409530822 10305204310 126200000000

How each number was derived

Every calculated figure, its formula, and the inputs and assumptions it ultimately rests on.

Value Amount Formula Traces back to
prior_baseline_reconstructed $127.90B total_budget + prior_baseline_stated_decrease total_budget (input), prior_baseline_stated_decrease (input)
prior_baseline_change_pct -1.3% round((total_budget - prior_baseline_reconstructed)/prior_baseline_reconstructed * 100, 1) total_budget (input), prior_baseline_stated_decrease (input)
env_clearance_rate_pct 93.7% round(corridor_miles_cleared/corridor_miles_total * 100, 1) corridor_miles_cleared (input), corridor_miles_total (input)
guideway_completion_pct 46.8% round(guideway_miles_complete/miles_design_or_construction * 100, 1) guideway_miles_complete (input), miles_design_or_construction (input)
structures_denominator_derived 89 major_structures_complete + major_structures_underway major_structures_complete (input), major_structures_underway (input)
structures_completion_pct 67.4% round(major_structures_complete/structures_denominator_derived * 100, 1) major_structures_complete (input), major_structures_underway (input)
cap_invest_total_committed 20,000,000,000 cap_invest_annual * cap_invest_years cap_invest_annual (input), cap_invest_years (assumption)
budget_utilization_pct 9.4% round(spent_to_date/total_budget * 100, 1) total_budget (input), spent_to_date (assumption)
drawdown_variance_pct -12.6% round((spent_to_date - planned_to_date)/planned_to_date * 100, 1) spent_to_date (assumption), planned_to_date (assumption)
schedule_variance_pct -76.1% round((monthly_burn_rate - (total_budget/(months_elapsed + months_remaining)))/(total_budget/(months_elapsed + months_remaining)) * 100, 1) total_budget (input), monthly_burn_rate (assumption), months_elapsed (assumption), months_remaining (assumption)
milestone_completion_pct 58.3% round(milestones_complete/total_milestones * 100, 1) milestones_complete (assumption), total_milestones (assumption)
remaining_budget $114.40B total_budget - spent_to_date total_budget (input), spent_to_date (assumption)
required_velocity 1,361,904,762 round(remaining_budget/months_remaining, 0) total_budget (input), spent_to_date (assumption), months_remaining (assumption)
target_monthly_burn $914.5M round(total_budget/(months_elapsed + months_remaining), 0) total_budget (input), months_elapsed (assumption), months_remaining (assumption)
contingency_reserve_dollar 15,144,000,000 round(total_budget * contingency_pct, 0) total_budget (input), contingency_pct (assumption)
total_months 48 min(months_elapsed + months_remaining, 48L) months_elapsed (assumption), months_remaining (assumption)

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