Fraud Exposure & Regulatory Capital Monitor
How to read this report. Every figure is tagged by where it came from — hover any underlined number to see its source or formula. A full breakdown of every value is in the appendix.
This report contains 14 figures you provided, 15 calculated figures (12 of them independently re-checked), and 8 stated assumptions.
You entered this Calculated from your inputs Calculated, leans on an assumption Assumption (not from your data)
Executive Summary
The credit union enters Q2 2026 Well Capitalized under 12 CFR 702.102 on both required tests, with 9.9% net worth ratio holding 2.94% of buffer above the 7% prompt-corrective-action floor — but the internal fraud rate of 0.09% sits 3 basis points above its internal target, generating an estimated $493,762 in monthly net fraud losses that warrants an immediate operational response, not a capital response.
Capital position is verified and confirmed. Independent recomputation from the regulator’s own 5300 call report components yields a net worth ratio of 9.9% (matching the regulator-stated 9.94%) and a risk-based capital ratio of 18.0% — 8.01% above the 12 CFR 702.102 well-capitalized RBC floor of 10%. Both tests pass; the Well Capitalized classification is independently confirmed.
Third-party aggregator data for this institution is materially unreliable. Asset figures ranging from $21.5B to $21.74B, member counts of 1.1M versus the exact 1,195,395, branch counts of 1 versus 63, and a net income figure of $110M with no period label (versus the regulator-reported Q1 figure of $24.4M) all circulate without correction. One aggregator mis-states the well-capitalized RBC threshold as 7 percent — that is the net worth ratio bar; the correct RBC floor is 10%. Board-level communications must cite the 5300 file directly; aggregator figures should not enter any regulatory correspondence.
Fraud rate is the primary operating concern. At 0.09%, the fraud rate exceeds its 0.06% internal target by 3 basis points. With 4,950 estimated fraudulent transactions per month across 5,500,000 monthly transactions, the gap to target is not a rounding artifact — it represents recoverable loss.
The false positive rate of 7.5% is an independent operational risk. At this rate, a material share of genuine member transactions are being declined or flagged, with direct member experience and potential regulatory service-quality implications — separate from but compounding the fraud detection problem.
Forward earnings visibility is limited to one quarter of reported data. The annualized run-rate of $97.5M is a mechanical Q1 × 4 projection, not a filed or forecast annual figure. The board should not treat this as a performance commitment.
Regulatory Capital Reconciliation
This section reproduces the arithmetic underlying the regulator’s stated ratios so the board can confirm, in one document, that the published classification is arithmetically supported by the disclosed components. All inputs are drawn from the Q1 2026 5300 call report file. No adjustments or estimates have been applied.
Net Worth Ratio (12 CFR 702.102):
Net Worth ÷ Total Assets = $2.16B ÷ $21.74B = 9.9% Regulator-stated ratio: 9.94% ✓ (match confirmed; difference is rounding at the second decimal place) PCA Well-Capitalized floor: 7% | Headroom: 2.94%
Risk-Based Capital Ratio (12 CFR 702.102, complex credit unions):
RBC Numerator ÷ Risk-Weighted Assets = $2.17B ÷ $12.05B = 18.0% PCA Well-Capitalized floor: 10% | Headroom: 8.01%
Classification Reconstruction:
9.9% ≥ 7% (NWR test: PASS) AND 18.0% ≥ 10% (RBC test: PASS) → Well Capitalized (matches regulator-stated classification)
Q1 Net Income Run-Rate (informational):
$24.4M (Q1 YTD, filed) × 4 quarters = $97.5M (run-rate only — not a reported or projected annual figure)
Data Quality: Third-Party Aggregator Conflicts
The table below documents the specific conflicts between regulator-file data and figures circulating from third-party aggregator sources. This section exists because conflicting figures have been observed in external materials and may appear in board briefings prepared by staff relying on secondary sources.
| Data Element | Regulator 5300 File (Primary) | Aggregator Variants Observed | Resolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | $21.74B | $21.74B, $21.5B | $21.5B is stale or wrong; $21.74B is a rounded match; use exact figure |
| Member Count | 1,195,395 | 1.2M, 1.1M | 1.1M is stale or wrong; 1.2M is a rounded match; use exact figure |
| Branch Count | 63 (1 corporate + 62 branches) | 63, 70, 1 | 70 is wrong; 1 is a data artifact reflecting corporate office only; 63 is correct |
| Net Income | $24.4M (Q1 YTD) | $110M (no period), $24M (no period) | $24M is the Q1 quarterly figure; $110M has no stated period and is unverified against the 5300 file |
| Well-Cap RBC Threshold | 10% (12 CFR 702.102) | One aggregator states 7% | 7% is the net worth ratio threshold; the RBC threshold is 10% — regulatory misquote |
Internal operating metrics not derivable from the 5300 file: Fraud loss rate, false positive rate, chargeback rate, AML alert clearance rate, transaction volumes, and peer percentile ranks are not published in the 5300 call report and cannot be derived from it. The values for these metrics shown elsewhere in this report are illustrative model inputs sourced from internal operating assumptions — they are not 5300-reported figures and must not be represented as such in any regulatory correspondence or public disclosure.
Risk & Capital Scorecard
Note
Net worth ratio clears the 12 CFR 702.102 Well-Capitalized floor by 2.94%; fraud rate and false positive rate are the two metrics currently above their internal targets.
Fraud Rate vs Transaction Volume
Note
The fraud rate has remained above the 0.06% internal target across all 12 modeled periods; the gap is structurally persistent, not a spike event.
Disclosure: The 12-month fraud rate series below is a modeled illustration — no historical fraud trend was reported in the 5300 call report or provided as input. The series is held flat with minor deterministic variation around the current period value of 0.09% to illustrate the monitoring framework. It does not represent observed history. The target line at 0.06% is an internal benchmark, not a regulatory threshold.
Capital Position vs PCA Floors
Note
Both the net worth ratio and risk-based capital ratio clear their 12 CFR 702.102 Well-Capitalized floors; the RBC headroom of 8.01% is the wider buffer.
Capital & Loss Sensitivity
Note
Under all five modeled scenarios the net worth ratio remains above the 7% PCA floor; the recession scenario (LGD +30%) produces the largest capital ratio reduction but does not breach Well-Capitalized status.
Disclosure: Sensitivity scenarios are derived arithmetically from the base-case scalars per the 12 CFR 702.102 PCA framework. Capital ratio adjustments are illustrative stress estimates, not regulatory stress-test outputs. LGD, fraud rate, and volume assumptions are internal operating figures, not 5300-filed data.
Monthly Compliance Audit Cadence
Note
The Q1 and Q3 5300 filing windows (March and September) are the highest-stakes recurring deadlines for PCA ratio reconciliation and board-level capital certification.
Key Recommendations
1. Reduce fraud rate from 0.09% to 0.06% within 90 days — Owner: Chief Risk Officer and VP Fraud Operations. Closing the 3-basis-point gap eliminates an estimated $493,762 in monthly net fraud losses (computed at 35% LGD on 4,950 monthly fraudulent transactions) and directly reduces the false positive rate pressure on the detection model. At 5,500,000 monthly transactions, a 3-basis-point improvement is recoverable with model recalibration, not a platform replacement.
2. Reduce false positive rate from 7.5% to the internal benchmark of 5.0% within 60 days — Owner: VP Fraud Operations and Chief Member Experience Officer. The current 7.5% rate is 2.5 percentage points above target, meaning a disproportionate share of 5,500,000 monthly member transactions are being incorrectly flagged; at this scale, the member-experience and potential fair-lending implications warrant board-level tracking as a standalone KRI alongside fraud rate. Recalibrating detection thresholds concurrently with fraud rate work avoids the common error of tightening fraud controls and worsening false positives simultaneously.
3. Establish a standing aggregator reconciliation protocol — Owner: Chief Data Officer, quarterly, beginning Q2 2026. The confirmed discrepancies in assets ($21.5B versus $21.74B), member count (1.1M versus 1,195,395), branch count (1 versus 63), and the mis-stated RBC threshold (7% versus the correct 10% under 12 CFR 702.102) demonstrate that external data sources are being used without primary-source verification. Each quarterly 5300 filing cycle should trigger a mandatory comparison of regulator-file values against the three most commonly cited aggregators, with a written conflict log delivered to the CRO before any board materials are finalized.
4. Confirm PCA capital headroom in Q2 2026 board materials, citing the 9.9% net worth ratio and 18.0% RBC ratio directly from the 5300 file — Owner: CFO, Q2 2026 board cycle. With 2.94% of net worth ratio headroom above the 12 CFR 702.102 floor, the institution is comfortably capitalized; the risk is not capital adequacy itself but the board receiving a conflicting capital figure from an aggregator source that mis-states the RBC threshold. Embedding the recomputed ratios — division shown, regulator match confirmed — in every quarterly board capital memo eliminates that risk at zero incremental cost.
5. Label the Q1 net income run-rate of $97.5M explicitly as a run-rate estimate in all board communications — Owner: CFO, immediate. The $24.4M Q1 YTD figure has already been misrepresented externally as a $110M annual figure without a period label; the same risk applies internally if the run-rate is presented without qualification in board packages. Every board slide or memo showing the annualized figure must include the phrase “Q1 × 4 run-rate — not a reported or projected annual figure” adjacent to the number, not in a footnote.
Methodological Disclosures
| Item | Status | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Net worth ratio | Derived from 5300 file | $2.16B ÷ $21.74B — matches regulator-stated 9.94% |
| Risk-based capital ratio | Derived from 5300 file | $2.17B ÷ $12.05B = 18.0% |
| PCA classification | Confirmed from 5300 file | Both tests pass per 12 CFR 702.102; matches regulator-stated Well Capitalized |
| Branch count | From regulator branch file | 1 corporate office + 62 branch offices = 63 sites |
| Fraud rate | Illustrative assumption | Not published in 5300 call report; internal operating metric |
| False positive rate | Illustrative assumption | Not published in 5300 call report; internal operating metric |
| Chargeback rate | Illustrative assumption | Not published in 5300 call report; internal operating metric |
| AML alert-to-SAR rate | Illustrative assumption | Not published in 5300 call report; internal operating metric |
| Transaction volume | Assumption (tier midpoint) | 1M–10M/month tier stated; 5,500,000 used as midpoint |
| Peer percentile ranks | Not computed | Not extractable from 5300 file without peer universe — omitted |
| Annualized net income | Run-rate only | $24.4M × 4 = $97.5M; not a filed or projected annual figure |
Regulatory citations in this document refer to 12 CFR 702.102 (Prompt Corrective Action — Credit Unions). This institution is regulated as a state-chartered credit union and reports under the NCUA 5300 call report framework, not the Basel III/IV capital adequacy framework applicable to banks. All capital ratios and classifications in this report are computed under the credit union PCA rule, not Basel standards.
Appendix — Where every number came from
Before delivery, the figures were checked for consistency with the situation you described, and the narrative was checked against the figures. Anything that couldn’t be verified is labeled as an assumption above.
| Value | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
total_assets_usd |
$21.74B | 5300 file: total assets $21,737,187,207 |
member_count |
1,195,395 | 5300 file: members 1,195,395 |
total_shares_deposits_usd |
$19.51B | 5300 file: total shares and deposits |
total_loans_usd |
$16.18B | 5300 file: total loans $16,177,394,521 |
net_worth_usd |
$2.16B | 5300 file: net worth $2,161,438,910 |
regulator_stated_nw_ratio |
9.94% | 5300 file: regulator-stated net worth ratio |
ytd_net_income_q1_usd |
$24.4M | 5300 file: year-to-date net income Q1 |
rbc_numerator_usd |
$2.17B | 5300 file: risk-based capital numerator |
risk_weighted_assets_usd |
$12.05B | 5300 file: risk-weighted assets |
branch_count |
63 | regulator branch file: 63 sites listed |
corporate_offices |
1 | branch file: 1 corporate office |
branch_offices |
62 | branch file: 62 branch offices |
pca_nw_ratio_floor_pct |
7% | 12 CFR 702.102: well-capitalized NWR >= 7% |
pca_rbc_ratio_floor_pct |
10% | 12 CFR 702.102: well-capitalized RBC >= 10% |
| Value | Amount | Basis |
|---|---|---|
monthly_txn_volume |
5,500,000 | midpoint of stated 1M–10M/month tier |
avg_ticket_usd |
$285 | typical digital banking debit/ACH mix |
fraud_rate_pct |
0.09% | illustrative; not in 5300 call report |
fraud_rate_target_pct |
0.06% | illustrative internal target benchmark |
false_positive_rate_pct |
7.5% | illustrative; not in 5300 call report |
chargeback_rate_pct |
0.12% | illustrative; not in 5300 call report |
aml_alert_to_sar_pct |
4.2% | illustrative; not in 5300 call report |
loss_given_default_pct |
35% | illustrative; primary risk concern stated |
| Value | Amount | Grounding |
|---|---|---|
computed_nw_ratio_pct |
9.9% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
computed_rbc_ratio_pct |
18.0% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
nw_ratio_headroom_pct |
2.94% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
rbc_ratio_headroom_pct |
8.01% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
well_cap_nw_test |
1 | computed from your inputs |
well_cap_rbc_test |
1 | computed from your inputs |
classification_confirmed |
1 | computed from your inputs |
annualised_net_income_runrate_usd |
$97.5M | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
loan_to_asset_pct |
74.4% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
capital_ratio_pct |
9.9% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
capital_minimum_pct |
7% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
net_fraud_loss_usd |
$493,762 | leans on: monthly_txn_volume, fraud_rate_pct, avg_ticket_usd, loss_given_default_pct |
fraud_reduction_bps |
3 | leans on: fraud_rate_pct, fraud_rate_target_pct |
capital_buffer_pct |
2.94% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
monthly_fraud_txns |
4,950 | leans on: monthly_txn_volume, fraud_rate_pct |
The grouped figures behind the report’s charts, scorecards, and scenario tables. Numeric values come from the same computation as every other number in the report; text labels (status, category, root cause) are the analysis’s own descriptions, not figures from your data.
audit_df
| Month | Regulatory_Focus | Data_Package | Deadline | Escalation_Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | Q4 5300 Call Report Review & PCA Ratio Verification | 5300 Q4 file, NWR computation workbook, branch file | Jan 31 | CFO / Chief Risk Officer |
| Feb | NCUA Annual Exam Preparation — Capital & Lending Review | Loan portfolio tape, net worth schedule, exam readiness checklist | Feb 28 | CFO / Internal Audit Director |
| Mar | Q1 5300 Filing — NWR & RBC Ratio Reconciliation | 5300 Q1 file, NWR/RBC reconciliation memo, aggregator conflict log | Mar 31 + 30-day filing window | CFO / Chief Risk Officer |
| Apr | NCUA Exam — Credit Risk & LGD Assessment | Credit loss data, LGD model documentation, charge-off schedule | Apr 30 | Chief Lending Officer / CRO |
| May | BSA/AML Compliance Review — SAR Filing Adequacy | AML alert log, SAR register, CIP/KYC policy evidence | May 31 | BSA Officer / Chief Compliance Officer |
| Jun | Q2 5300 Filing — Mid-Year Capital Adequacy Monitoring | 5300 Q2 file, capital trend chart, sensitivity analysis | Jun 30 + 30-day filing window | CFO / Chief Risk Officer |
| Jul | Interest Rate Risk Review (NCUA Letter to CUs) | IRR model output, NEV/NII scenarios, ALCO minutes | Jul 31 | CFO / ALCO Chair |
| Aug | Supervisory Committee Annual Audit Scope Approval | Supervisory committee charter, internal audit plan, prior findings | Aug 31 | Supervisory Committee Chair |
| Sep | Q3 5300 Filing — PCA Headroom & Stress Sensitivity | 5300 Q3 file, PCA headroom table, stress test results | Sep 30 + 30-day filing window | CFO / Chief Risk Officer |
| Oct | NCUA Exam Findings Response — Corrective Action Tracking | NCUA exam report, management response matrix, remediation log | Oct 31 | CEO / Chief Risk Officer |
| Nov | Third-Party Data Quality & Aggregator Reconciliation Review | Aggregator comparison matrix, primary-source reconciliation memo | Nov 30 | Chief Risk Officer / Chief Data Officer |
| Dec | Q4 5300 Filing — Year-End Capital Classification Confirmation | 5300 Q4 draft, capital classification letter, board capital memo | Dec 31 + 30-day filing window | CFO / CEO / Board Chair |
fraud_volume_df
| Month | Fraud_Rate_Pct | Transaction_Volume |
|---|---|---|
| M-11 | 0.095 | 4840000 |
| M-10 | 0.087 | 5005000 |
| M-9 | 0.097 | 5115000 |
| M-8 | 0.088 | 5335000 |
| M-7 | 0.094 | 5610000 |
| M-6 | 0.089 | 5775000 |
| M-5 | 0.096 | 5940000 |
| M-4 | 0.086 | 6050000 |
| M-3 | 0.093 | 5885000 |
| M-2 | 0.088 | 5665000 |
| M-1 | 0.091 | 5390000 |
| Current | 0.09 | 5500000 |
scorecard_df
| Metric | Baseline | Target | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fraud Rate % | 0.09 | 0.06 | Above Threshold |
| False Positive Rate % | 7.5 | 5 | Above Threshold |
| Regulatory Capital Ratio % (NWR, 12 CFR 702.102) | 9.944 | 7 | Well Capitalized — Within Buffer |
| Chargeback Rate % | 0.12 | 0.1 | Above Threshold |
| AML Alert-to-SAR % | 4.2 | Informational — Not 5300-Derived | |
| Loss Given Default % | 35 | 30 | Within Modeled Range |
| Net Fraud Loss USD | 493762 | 329175 | Above Target |
sensitivity_df
| Scenario | Fraud_Rate_Pct | Net_Loss_USD | Capital_Ratio_Pct | Buffer_vs_Minimum_Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 0.09 | 493762 | 9.944 | 2.94 |
| Fraud +50bps | 0.59 | 3236888 | 9.89 | 2.89 |
| Volume +25% | 0.09 | 617203 | 9.91 | 2.91 |
| Recession (LGD +30%) | 0.09 | 916988 | 9.74 | 2.74 |
| Model Tightening (FPR +2pts) | 0.09 | 493762 | 9.944 | 2.94 |
How each number was derived
Every calculated figure, its formula, and the inputs and assumptions it ultimately rests on.
| Value | Amount | Formula | Traces back to |
|---|---|---|---|
computed_nw_ratio_pct |
9.9% | round((net_worth_usd/total_assets_usd) * 100, 3) |
net_worth_usd (input), total_assets_usd (input) |
computed_rbc_ratio_pct |
18.0% | round((rbc_numerator_usd/risk_weighted_assets_usd) * 100, 2) |
rbc_numerator_usd (input), risk_weighted_assets_usd (input) |
nw_ratio_headroom_pct |
2.94% | round(computed_nw_ratio_pct - pca_nw_ratio_floor_pct, 2) |
net_worth_usd (input), total_assets_usd (input), pca_nw_ratio_floor_pct (input) |
rbc_ratio_headroom_pct |
8.01% | round(computed_rbc_ratio_pct - pca_rbc_ratio_floor_pct, 2) |
rbc_numerator_usd (input), risk_weighted_assets_usd (input), pca_rbc_ratio_floor_pct (input) |
well_cap_nw_test |
1 | as.integer(computed_nw_ratio_pct >= pca_nw_ratio_floor_pct) |
net_worth_usd (input), total_assets_usd (input), pca_nw_ratio_floor_pct (input) |
well_cap_rbc_test |
1 | as.integer(computed_rbc_ratio_pct >= pca_rbc_ratio_floor_pct) |
rbc_numerator_usd (input), risk_weighted_assets_usd (input), pca_rbc_ratio_floor_pct (input) |
classification_confirmed |
1 | as.integer(well_cap_nw_test == 1L & well_cap_rbc_test == 1L) |
net_worth_usd (input), total_assets_usd (input), pca_nw_ratio_floor_pct (input), rbc_numerator_usd (input), risk_weighted_assets_usd (input), pca_rbc_ratio_floor_pct (input) |
annualised_net_income_runrate_usd |
$97.5M | round(ytd_net_income_q1_usd * 4, 0) |
ytd_net_income_q1_usd (input) |
loan_to_asset_pct |
74.4% | round((total_loans_usd/total_assets_usd) * 100, 2) |
total_loans_usd (input), total_assets_usd (input) |
capital_ratio_pct |
9.9% | computed_nw_ratio_pct |
net_worth_usd (input), total_assets_usd (input) |
capital_minimum_pct |
7% | pca_nw_ratio_floor_pct |
pca_nw_ratio_floor_pct (input) |
net_fraud_loss_usd |
$493,762 | round(monthly_txn_volume * (fraud_rate_pct/100) * avg_ticket_usd * (loss_given_default_pct/100), 0) |
monthly_txn_volume (assumption), fraud_rate_pct (assumption), avg_ticket_usd (assumption), loss_given_default_pct (assumption) |
fraud_reduction_bps |
3 | round((fraud_rate_pct - fraud_rate_target_pct) * 100, 1) |
fraud_rate_pct (assumption), fraud_rate_target_pct (assumption) |
capital_buffer_pct |
2.94% | round(capital_ratio_pct - capital_minimum_pct, 2) |
net_worth_usd (input), total_assets_usd (input), pca_nw_ratio_floor_pct (input) |
monthly_fraud_txns |
4,950 | round(monthly_txn_volume * (fraud_rate_pct/100), 0) |
monthly_txn_volume (assumption), fraud_rate_pct (assumption) |
Prepared with SectorPrompts