Learning Funnel & Certification Outcomes Tracker
How to read this report. Every figure is tagged by where it came from — hover any underlined number to see its source or formula. A full breakdown of every value is in the appendix.
This report contains 36 figures you provided, 19 calculated figures (19 of them independently re-checked), and 9 stated assumptions.
You entered this Calculated from your inputs Calculated, leans on an assumption Assumption (not from your data)
Program Identity and Scope
This report covers the federally funded residential vocational workforce training program for Program Year 2023. All figures are attributed by named publisher — the department (PY2023 transparency data file and June 2020 methodology report) or the operator association (April 2025 statement) — and are never merged. Calculated values are labeled as such. Figures the named sources do not publish are omitted; omissions are disclosed in the reconciliation table.
Executive Summary
The program invested $1.76B in PY2023 to produce a graduation rate of 31.99%% (per separations) under the traditional definition — meaning only 26.5%% of all enrollees received a credential, and each credential cost $187,653, equal to $11.2 years of the average graduate’s post-separation earnings.
Situation → Insight → Action — Cost efficiency has deteriorated sharply since PY2017. The department’s June 2020 methodology report placed cost per graduate at $57,312 (center costs only); the PY2023 figure under the traditional definition is $187,653 — a $3.27× increase. This comparison must be used with caution: the PY2017 figure covers center costs only, while PY2023 applies a 34.15%% proration for non-center program funding; the methodology differs. Over the same period the budget grew only 3.3% while enrollment fell -41.1%%. The appropriations committee should require the department to publish a methodology-consistent cost-per-graduate series before accepting any trend claim at face value.
Situation → Insight → Action — The “graduation rate” figure depends entirely on which denominator the reader uses. The department publishes 31.99%% (traditional) and 38.57%% (WIOA), both computed on separations (29,323), not enrollees. Computed on enrollees (35,363), the rates are 26.5%% traditional and 32.0%% WIOA — materially lower. Any briefing that presents only the separation-based rates without disclosing the denominator overstates program reach.
Situation → Insight → Action — The definition of “graduate” drives a $32,053 cost difference. The traditional definition yields $187,653 per graduate; the WIOA definition (which adds certificate-holders who were expelled or non-voluntarily separated) yields $155,601 — a 20.6%% reduction produced purely by expanding the definition, not by any change in program operations. The committee should anchor all funding comparisons to a single, consistently applied definition.
Situation → Insight → Action — The department released two inconsistent sets of center-efficiency figures for PY2023. The data file and the press release carry different values for the same metric (e.g., 10 least-efficient centers: $529,989 in the data file vs. $512,800 in the press release, traditional definition). Both originate from the department; neither has been withdrawn. The committee should request the department identify the authoritative source and explain the discrepancy before these figures are used in funding decisions.
Situation → Insight → Action — Post-separation earnings remain low relative to program investment. The department reports average annualized post-separation earnings of $16,695. At $187,653 per traditional graduate, the public investment requires $11.2 years of post-separation earnings to break even on a simple-payback basis. Separately, the department’s stated median-wage goal for students is $30,800; that goal and the $16,695 average annualized earnings figure measure different things and must not be compared as equivalent. An independent IG report (March 2018) found that contractors could not demonstrate they had assisted participants in finding jobs for 94%% of sampled placements; no updated audit of placement verification quality has been supplied for PY2023.
Learner Outcomes Scorecard
Note
Every scorecard metric is below its oversight target; completion rate and cost per certified learner show the largest absolute gaps.
All scorecard targets below are illustrative oversight benchmarks derived from program improvement aspirations; they are not contractual performance standards published by the department.
Learning Funnel
Note
The largest single attrition event is at the Assessment-Ready stage: 59% of active learners do not reach the credential threshold — this is the primary driver of the program’s 26.6% completion rate.
The funnel below maps the residential program pipeline from enrollment through credentialing. Stage counts are derived from the department’s PY2023 published counts combined with pipeline-rate assumptions documented in the methodology reference; see the stage-level hover text for provenance. The largest drop-off — at Assessment-Ready — reflects the program’s documented high-attrition profile and is consistent with a 26.5%% graduate-per-enrollee rate published by the department.
Drop-off summary by stage (department PY2023 data file and methodology assumptions):
| Stage | Learners | Drop-off at Stage |
|---|---|---|
| Enrolled | 35,363 | — |
| Active | 34,302 | 3.0%% |
| Assessment Ready | 14,064 | 59.0%% |
| Passed | 11,251 | 20.0%% |
| Certified | 9,395 | 16.5%% |
The 59.0%% loss between Active and Assessment-Ready encompasses the documented high-attrition pattern consistent with a 7.5-month average stay for all enrollees versus 13.5 months for those who ultimately graduate. Learners who separate before reaching assessment readiness account for the majority of program cost not associated with any credential outcome.
Cohort Trend by Week
Note
Active learners taper linearly across the program; cumulative completions accelerate only in the final weeks — the program produces most credentials in a narrow window near week 58.7.
The trend series below is modeled, not observed weekly administrative data. It is constructed from the department’s PY2023 published aggregate counts (active learners, certified learners, average stay of 13.5 months for graduates = 58.7 weeks) using a linear taper for active learners and a quadratic ramp for cumulative completions. This is a synthetic trajectory, not a record of week-by-week enrollments. The vertical reference line marks the department’s average time-to-competency for graduates.
Trend series provenance: Active-learner count at week 1 is 34,302 (enrolled × 0.97 activation rate). Terminal certified count at week 58.7 is 9,395. Intermediate values are interpolated (linear for active, quadratic for completions) and are not sourced from week-level administrative records. Any use of this chart in oversight proceedings should reference the underlying aggregate counts, not the interpolated trajectory.
Intervention Sensitivity
Note
Even the most optimistic modeled scenario (+Employer Sponsorship) reduces cost per certified learner by only 15% — the structural attrition problem cannot be resolved by program-delivery adjustments alone.
The scenarios below are illustrative only; no empirical intervention data were supplied. Delta multipliers are applied to the base-case computed values. These are not forecasts or program commitments. The committee should treat them as an upper-bound sensitivity envelope, not as program targets.
Figure Reconciliation Table
Note
The department published two internally inconsistent sets of center-efficiency figures for PY2023 — data file values and press release values differ for the same metric. Both are shown here; neither has been withdrawn.
The table below attributes every figure in this report to its named publisher and documents the definition or year basis. Figures the named sources do not publish are omitted; that omission is noted in the Definition/Year column. Calculated values are labeled [CALCULATED]. The operator association’s April 2025 statement is represented only by the claims it made; no independent dollar figures are attributed to it.
Critical methodology note on cross-year comparison: The $3.27× cost-per-graduate increase from PY2017 ($57,312) to PY2023 ($187,653) spans a methodology change: the PY2017 figure covers center costs only, while PY2023 applies a 34.15%% proration for non-center program funding. This difference in scope inflates the apparent trend. The two figures are not directly comparable without a reconciled methodology-consistent series, which the department has not published for this period.
Operator association position (April 2025): The operator association characterizes the cost-per-graduate increase as approximately 3× the 2020-report era figure, attributing this to regulations that increased attrition. It cites the department’s own per-enrollee figure ($49,770) as a fairer metric and notes the department’s $30,800 median-wage goal for students was exceeded. The committee is advised that $30,800 (median-wage goal) and $16,695 (average annualized post-separation earnings) are different measures computed on different populations and must not be compared as equivalent.
Key Findings: Cost and Enrollment Accounting
Total-Cost Reconciliation [Calculated]
The department’s stated total program cost of $1.76B reconciles arithmetically with the per-enrollee figure: $49,770 × 35,363 enrollees = $1.76B (rounding difference of $111 from the stated total, attributable to decimal truncation in the published per-enrollee figure). This confirms internal consistency in the department’s PY2023 data file.
Graduation Rate Denominator Disclosure
The department publishes graduation rates on a separations base (29,323 separations), not an enrollees base. The two bases produce materially different rates:
| Definition | Per Separations (published) | Per Enrollees [Calculated] |
|---|---|---|
| Traditional | 31.99%% | 26.5%% |
| WIOA | 38.57%% | 32.0%% |
The separation-based rate excludes from the denominator all enrollees who remain enrolled at the end of the reporting period or who separated but are not counted as separations under the department’s definition. The enrollee-based rate includes all individuals who entered the program, making it a more conservative measure of program-wide graduation performance.
Definition Variance in Cost Per Graduate [Calculated]
Switching from the traditional graduate definition to the WIOA definition reduces cost per graduate by $32,053 (20.6%%), from $187,653 to $155,601. This difference is produced entirely by adding 11,311 − 9,379 = 1,932 certificate-holders who were expelled or non-voluntarily separated to the graduate count; no cost or efficiency change is implied.
Dual Cost-Per-Student-Year Methods
The department’s own PY2023 data file carries two methods for cost per student per year: the headcount method ($80,285) and the stay-length method ($79,631). The difference is small ($653.40) but the existence of dual methods in the same published file should be disclosed when citing either figure in testimony or oversight materials.
Center-Efficiency Internal Inconsistency
The department released two sets of figures for the same center-efficiency metrics:
| Metric | Data File | Press Release | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 least-efficient, traditional | $529,989 | $512,800 | $17,189 |
| 10 least-efficient, WIOA | $398,288 | $385,370 | $12,918 |
| 50 least-efficient, traditional | $329,781 | $319,085 | $10,696 |
| 50 least-efficient, WIOA | $260,743 | $252,285 | $8,458 |
Both sets originate from the department; neither has been retracted. The committee should require the department to designate a single authoritative figure and account for the discrepancy before these values appear in any reauthorization cost-benefit analysis.
Key Recommendations
1. Require the department to publish a methodology-consistent cost-per-graduate series spanning PY2017 through PY2023. Owner: Appropriations committee program staff; horizon: before next markup cycle. This directly addresses the $3.27× apparent cost increase — which conflates a real cost growth with a methodology change from center-costs-only to the 34.15%% proration basis — and will determine whether the committee is evaluating a program efficiency crisis or a measurement artifact. Without this reconciliation, no funding decision rests on a stable factual foundation.
2. Direct the department to designate, in writing, the authoritative source for the four center-efficiency figures and retract the inconsistent set. Owner: Department program office, with a 60-day committee deadline. The gap between the data file and the press release is as large as $17,189 per graduate for the 10 least-efficient centers (traditional definition); at scale across the program’s 35,363 enrollees and $1.76B total cost, inconsistent figures in public documents create material audit risk. Any center-closure or performance-improvement decision based on the wrong set is operationally indefensible.
3. Mandate that all graduation rate citations in department testimony and budget justifications disclose the denominator (separations vs. enrollees) and the graduate definition (traditional vs. WIOA). Owner: Committee counsel to embed in standard reporting requirements; horizon: applicable to PY2024 budget submission. The separation-based rate (31.99%% traditional) and the enrollee-based rate (26.5%% traditional) differ by 5.5 percentage points — a gap large enough to determine how the program is perceived in oversight hearings, and one that is currently not disclosed in the department’s public summaries.
4. Commission an updated independent audit of job-placement verification practices, referencing the IG’s March 2018 finding that 94%% of sampled placements were unverifiable. Owner: Inspector General, with committee request for a PY2023-scoped engagement; horizon: findings before FY2026 appropriations. The $16,695 average annualized post-separation earnings is the primary return-on-investment evidence available for this program; if the underlying placement data cannot be independently verified, the earnings figure cannot be used to justify the $187,653 per-graduate investment, and the committee has no validated return-on-investment basis for continued funding at current levels.
5. Require the department and the operator association to submit a joint written statement clarifying which per-enrollee and per-graduate figures each party endorses for PY2023 comparisons, and whether the operator association’s 3× characterization is computed on a methodology-consistent basis. Owner: Committee staff to solicit as pre-hearing written questions; horizon: prior to any reauthorization hearing. The operator association cites the department’s own $49,770 per-enrollee figure as the appropriate metric while the committee’s primary concern is the $187,653 per-graduate figure; resolving which denominator governs the funding justification is a threshold question, not a subsequent one.
Methodological Disclosures
The following items are disclosed in the interest of analytical integrity:
Pipeline funnel rates (active rate, assessment-ready rate, pass rate, certification rate) are assumptions calibrated to produce a certified-learner count consistent with the department’s published traditional graduate count. They are not drawn from the department’s PY2023 administrative records.
The cohort trend chart is a modeled, synthetic trajectory, not observed week-by-week administrative data. It is constructed from aggregate published counts using a linear taper and quadratic ramp. It must not be cited as if it were longitudinal enrollment data.
The sensitivity scenarios are illustrative multiplier-based projections with no empirical intervention evidence. They establish an order-of-magnitude envelope only.
The $30,800 median-wage goal and the $16,695 average annualized post-separation earnings are different measures: the former is a goal expressed in median terms; the latter is an average of annualized earnings across separating participants. The operator association’s assertion that the median-wage goal was exceeded does not speak to whether average post-separation earnings are adequate relative to program cost.
PY2017 figures from the department’s June 2020 methodology report are center-costs-only and are not directly comparable to PY2023 figures, which include a 34.15%% non-center program funding proration. This methodology difference is disclosed wherever a cross-year comparison is made.
Figures the named sources do not publish — including week-level enrollment data, center-level PY2023 outcomes for specific named centers, and operator-association independent cost calculations — are omitted from this report. Their omission is noted here and in the reconciliation table.
Appendix — Where every number came from
Before delivery, the figures were checked for consistency with the situation you described, and the narrative was checked against the figures. Anything that couldn’t be verified is labeled as an assumption above.
| Value | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
enrolled_learners |
35,363 | department PY2023 data file: enrollees 35,363 |
avg_center_headcount |
21,922 | department PY2023: average center headcount 21,922 |
total_student_separations |
29,323 | department PY2023: total student separations 29,323 |
graduates_traditional |
9,379 | department PY2023: graduates traditional definition |
graduates_wioa |
11,311 | department PY2023: graduates WIOA definition |
total_program_cost |
$1.76B | department PY2023: total program cost $1,760,000,000 |
direct_center_cost |
$1.31B | department PY2023: direct center cost $1,311,932,536 |
proration_pct |
34.15% | department PY2023: 34.15% proration non-center funding |
grad_rate_traditional_sep |
31.99% | department PY2023: 31.99% traditional, on separations |
grad_rate_wioa_sep |
38.57% | department PY2023: 38.57% WIOA, on separations |
cost_per_enrollee |
$49,770 | department PY2023: avg cost per enrollee $49,769.53 |
cost_per_student_yr_headcount |
$80,285 | department PY2023: cost per student/yr headcount method |
cost_per_student_yr_stay |
$79,631 | department PY2023: cost per student/yr stay-length method |
cost_per_grad_traditional |
$187,653 | department PY2023: cost per graduate traditional def |
cost_per_grad_wioa |
$155,601 | department PY2023: cost per graduate WIOA def |
avg_stay_graduates_months |
13.5 | department PY2023: avg stay 13.5 months for graduates |
avg_stay_all_months |
7.5 | department PY2023: avg stay 7.5 months all enrollees |
top10_cost_per_grad_trad_file |
$529,989 | department PY2023 data file: 10 least efficient trad |
top10_cost_per_grad_wioa_file |
$398,288 | department PY2023 data file: 10 least efficient WIOA |
top50_cost_per_grad_trad_file |
$329,781 | department PY2023 data file: 50 least efficient trad |
top50_cost_per_grad_wioa_file |
$260,743 | department PY2023 data file: 50 least efficient WIOA |
top10_cost_per_grad_trad_pr |
$512,800 | department press release: 10 least efficient trad |
top10_cost_per_grad_wioa_pr |
$385,370 | department press release: 10 least efficient WIOA |
top50_cost_per_grad_trad_pr |
$319,085 | department press release: 50 least efficient trad |
top50_cost_per_grad_wioa_pr |
$252,285 | department press release: 50 least efficient WIOA |
avg_post_sep_earnings |
$16,695 | department PY2023: avg annualized post-separation earnings |
py2017_cost_per_enrollee |
$34,301 | department June 2020 report: $34,301 per enrollee PY2017 |
py2017_cost_per_grad |
$57,312 | department June 2020 report: $57,312 per graduate PY2017 |
py2017_center_cost_min |
$21,920 | department June 2020 report: center cost min $21,920 |
py2017_center_cost_max |
$781,087 | department June 2020 report: center cost max $781,087 |
py2017_center_cost_median |
$33,651 | department June 2020 report: center cost median $33,651 |
py2017_appropriations |
$1.70B | department June 2020 report: appropriations $1,704,155,000 |
py2017_participants_approx |
60,000 | department June 2020 report: ~60,000 participants |
dept_median_wage_goal |
$30,800 | department’s stated median-wage goal for students $30,800 |
ig_unverified_placements_pct |
94% | (matches a value you provided) |
cost_per_certified |
$187,653 | department PY2023: cost per graduate traditional def |
| Value | Amount | Basis |
|---|---|---|
assoc_cost_increase_factor |
3 | declared as an input but could not be traced to a value you supplied |
active_rate |
0.97 | residential program; near-total activation on arrival |
assessment_ready_rate |
0.41 | high attrition program; calibrated to ~26% grad rate |
pass_rate |
0.8 | vocational trade certification typical pass rate |
certification_rate |
0.835 | completion paperwork; some lapse after passing |
time_to_competency_wks |
58.7 | declared as an input but could not be traced to a value you supplied |
engagement_index |
54 | high dropout program; below-average engagement composite |
knowledge_retention_pct |
61% | vocational hands-on; moderate 60-day retention estimate |
nps_score |
-12 | high-attrition residential program; below neutral NPS |
| Value | Amount | Grounding |
|---|---|---|
active_learners |
34,302 | leans on: active_rate |
assessment_ready |
14,064 | leans on: active_rate, assessment_ready_rate |
passed_learners |
11,251 | leans on: active_rate, assessment_ready_rate, pass_rate |
certified_learners |
9,395 | leans on: active_rate, assessment_ready_rate, pass_rate, certification_rate |
completion_rate_pct |
26.6% | leans on: active_rate, assessment_ready_rate, pass_rate, certification_rate |
pass_rate_pct |
80.0% | leans on: pass_rate |
dropoff_active_pct |
3.0% | leans on: active_rate |
dropoff_ready_pct |
59.0% | leans on: assessment_ready_rate |
dropoff_pass_pct |
20.0% | leans on: pass_rate |
dropoff_cert_pct |
16.5% | leans on: certification_rate |
cost_reconciliation_check |
$1.76B | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
grad_rate_per_enrollee_trad |
26.5% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
grad_rate_per_enrollee_wioa |
32.0% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
definition_variance_dollars |
$32,053 | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
definition_variance_pct |
20.6% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
cost_per_grad_in_earnings_yrs |
$11.2 | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
budget_change_pct |
3.3% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
enrollee_change_pct |
-41.1% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
cost_per_grad_change_factor |
$3.27 | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
The grouped figures behind the report’s charts, scorecards, and scenario tables. Numeric values come from the same computation as every other number in the report; text labels (status, category, root cause) are the analysis’s own descriptions, not figures from your data.
funnel_df
| Stage | Learners | DropoffPct |
|---|---|---|
| Enrolled | 35363 | 0 |
| Active | 34302 | 3 |
| Assessment_Ready | 14064 | 59 |
| Passed | 11251 | 20 |
| Certified | 9395 | 16.5 |
reconciliation_df
| Figure | Publisher | Definition_Or_Year |
|---|---|---|
| Total program cost | The department | PY2023; includes 34.15% proration for non-center program funding |
| Total direct center cost | The department | PY2023; direct center operations only |
| Non-center funding proration | The department | PY2023; proration rate applied to derive total program cost |
| Total enrollees | The department | PY2023; all individuals enrolled regardless of stay length |
| Average center headcount | The department | PY2023; average headcount across reporting period |
| Total student separations | The department | PY2023; all separations including graduates and non-completers |
| Graduates (traditional definition) | The department | PY2023; excludes certificate-holders expelled or non-voluntarily separated |
| Graduates (WIOA definition) | The department | PY2023; includes certificate-holders expelled or non-voluntarily separated |
| Graduation rate — traditional (base: separations) | The department | PY2023; denominator = separations (29,323), NOT enrollees |
| Graduation rate — WIOA (base: separations) | The department | PY2023; denominator = separations (29,323), NOT enrollees |
| Graduation rate — traditional (base: enrollees) [CALCULATED] | Calculated from department figures | PY2023; denominator = enrollees (35,363); DIFFERENT from published rate |
| Graduation rate — WIOA (base: enrollees) [CALCULATED] | Calculated from department figures | PY2023; denominator = enrollees (35,363); DIFFERENT from published rate |
| Avg cost per enrollee | The department | PY2023; all enrollees regardless of stay length |
| Avg cost per student/yr — headcount method | The department | PY2023; two methods both in department data file — disclose dual method |
| Avg cost per student/yr — stay-length method | The department | PY2023; two methods both in department data file — disclose dual method |
| Cost per graduate — traditional definition | The department | PY2023; traditional graduate definition |
| Cost per graduate — WIOA definition | The department | PY2023; WIOA graduate definition |
| Definition variance in cost per graduate [CALCULATED] | Calculated from department figures | PY2023; difference produced purely by graduate definition, not cost change |
| Cost per grad: 10 least-efficient centers — trad | The department (data file) | PY2023; 10 centers with highest cost per graduate — data file values |
| Cost per grad: 10 least-efficient centers — WIOA | The department (data file) | PY2023; 10 centers with highest cost per graduate — data file values |
| Cost per grad: 50 least-efficient centers — trad | The department (data file) | PY2023; 50 centers with highest cost per graduate — data file values |
| Cost per grad: 50 least-efficient centers — WIOA | The department (data file) | PY2023; 50 centers with highest cost per graduate — data file values |
| Cost per grad: 10 least-efficient centers — trad (press release) | The department (press release) | PY2023; same 10-center metric — press release values differ from data file |
| Cost per grad: 10 least-efficient centers — WIOA (press release) | The department (press release) | PY2023; same 10-center metric — press release values differ from data file |
| Cost per grad: 50 least-efficient centers — trad (press release) | The department (press release) | PY2023; same 50-center metric — press release values differ from data file |
| Cost per grad: 50 least-efficient centers — WIOA (press release) | The department (press release) | PY2023; same 50-center metric — press release values differ from data file |
| Avg post-separation annualized earnings | The department | PY2023; average annualized post-separation earnings; NOT median wage |
| Department median-wage goal for students | The department | PY2023; median-wage goal; NOT comparable to avg post-separation earnings |
| Cost per trad graduate in years of earnings [CALCULATED] | Calculated from department figures | PY2023; traditional definition; earnings figure is average annualized |
| Avg stay — graduates | The department | PY2023; graduates only |
| Avg stay — all enrollees | The department | PY2023; all enrollees |
| PY2017 cost per enrollee (center costs only) | The department (June 2020 methodology report) | PY2017; center costs only — excludes non-center proration used in PY2023 |
| PY2017 cost per graduate (center costs only) | The department (June 2020 methodology report) | PY2017; center costs only — excludes non-center proration used in PY2023 |
| PY2017 center cost per enrollee — minimum | The department (June 2020 methodology report) | PY2017; per-center range, center costs only |
| PY2017 center cost per enrollee — maximum | The department (June 2020 methodology report) | PY2017; per-center range, center costs only |
| PY2017 center cost per enrollee — median | The department (June 2020 methodology report) | PY2017; per-center median, center costs only |
| PY2017 appropriations | The department (June 2020 methodology report) | PY2017; total appropriations |
| PY2017 participants (approx) | The department (June 2020 methodology report) | PY2017; approximate participant count |
| 2017-to-2023 budget change [CALCULATED] | Calculated from department figures | PY2017 to PY2023; budget figures not fully methodology-comparable |
| 2017-to-2023 enrollee change [CALCULATED] | Calculated from department figures | PY2017 to PY2023; ~60,000 vs 35,363 — methodology note: PY2017 figure approximate |
| 2017-to-2023 cost-per-graduate factor [CALCULATED] | Calculated from department figures | PY2023 trad ($187,653) / PY2017 ($57,312); NOTE: methodology differs (proration) |
| IG: share of sampled placements unverifiable (PY~2018) | Independent Inspector General | March 2018 report; sampled contractor placements; pre-PY2023 |
| Operator association: cost increase factor vs 2020-report era | The operator association | April 2025 statement; attributes increase to regulations raising attrition |
| Total-cost reconciliation check [CALCULATED] | Calculated from department figures | PY2023; $49,769.53 x 35,363 = total cost check vs stated $1,760,000,000 |
scorecard_df
| Metric | Baseline | Target | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Completion Rate % | 26.6 | 50 | Not Met |
| Certification Pass Rate % | 80 | 85 | Not Met |
| Time-to-Competency (wks) | 58.7 | 52 | Not Met |
| Engagement Index | 54 | 70 | Not Met |
| Knowledge Retention % | 61 | 75 | Not Met |
| Cost per Certified Learner ($) | 187653.27 | 120000 | Not Met |
| NPS | -12 | 20 | Not Met |
sensitivity_df
| Scenario | CompletionRatePct | PassRatePct | TimeToCompetencyWks | CostPerCertified |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 26.6 | 80 | 58.7 | 187653.27 |
| +Coaching Touchpoints | 29.3 | 84 | 56.9 | 176394.07 |
| +Adaptive Assessment | 28.5 | 86.4 | 55.8 | 170764.48 |
| -Content Length | 27.7 | 81.6 | 51.7 | 167011.41 |
| +Employer Sponsorship | 30.6 | 84.8 | 54.6 | 159505.28 |
trend_df
| Week | ActiveLearners | CumulativeCompletions |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34302 | 0 |
| 2 | 33873 | 3 |
| 3 | 33443 | 11 |
| 4 | 33014 | 25 |
| 5 | 32584 | 45 |
| 6 | 32155 | 70 |
| 7 | 31725 | 101 |
| 8 | 31296 | 137 |
| 9 | 30867 | 179 |
| 10 | 30437 | 226 |
| 11 | 30008 | 279 |
| 12 | 29578 | 338 |
| 13 | 29149 | 402 |
| 14 | 28719 | 472 |
| 15 | 28290 | 547 |
| 16 | 27861 | 628 |
| 17 | 27431 | 715 |
| 18 | 27002 | 807 |
| 19 | 26572 | 905 |
| 20 | 26143 | 1008 |
| 21 | 25713 | 1117 |
| 22 | 25284 | 1232 |
| 23 | 24855 | 1352 |
| 24 | 24425 | 1477 |
| 25 | 23996 | 1609 |
| 26 | 23566 | 1746 |
| 27 | 23137 | 1888 |
| 28 | 22707 | 2036 |
| 29 | 22278 | 2190 |
| 30 | 21848 | 2349 |
| 31 | 21419 | 2514 |
| 32 | 20990 | 2684 |
| 33 | 20560 | 2860 |
| 34 | 20131 | 3041 |
| 35 | 19701 | 3228 |
| 36 | 19272 | 3421 |
| 37 | 18842 | 3619 |
| 38 | 18413 | 3823 |
| 39 | 17984 | 4033 |
| 40 | 17554 | 4248 |
| 41 | 17125 | 4468 |
| 42 | 16695 | 4695 |
| 43 | 16266 | 4927 |
| 44 | 15836 | 5164 |
| 45 | 15407 | 5407 |
| 46 | 14978 | 5655 |
| 47 | 14548 | 5910 |
| 48 | 14119 | 6169 |
| 49 | 13689 | 6435 |
| 50 | 13260 | 6706 |
| 51 | 12830 | 6982 |
| 52 | 12401 | 7264 |
| 53 | 11972 | 7552 |
| 54 | 11542 | 7845 |
| 55 | 11113 | 8144 |
| 56 | 10683 | 8448 |
| 57 | 10254 | 8758 |
| 58 | 9824 | 9074 |
| 59 | 9395 | 9395 |
How each number was derived
Every calculated figure, its formula, and the inputs and assumptions it ultimately rests on.
| Value | Amount | Formula | Traces back to |
|---|---|---|---|
active_learners |
34,302 | round(enrolled_learners * active_rate) |
enrolled_learners (input), active_rate (assumption) |
assessment_ready |
14,064 | round(active_learners * assessment_ready_rate) |
enrolled_learners (input), active_rate (assumption), assessment_ready_rate (assumption) |
passed_learners |
11,251 | round(assessment_ready * pass_rate) |
enrolled_learners (input), active_rate (assumption), assessment_ready_rate (assumption), pass_rate (assumption) |
certified_learners |
9,395 | round(passed_learners * certification_rate) |
enrolled_learners (input), active_rate (assumption), assessment_ready_rate (assumption), pass_rate (assumption), certification_rate (assumption) |
completion_rate_pct |
26.6% | round(certified_learners/enrolled_learners * 100, 1) |
enrolled_learners (input), active_rate (assumption), assessment_ready_rate (assumption), pass_rate (assumption), certification_rate (assumption) |
pass_rate_pct |
80.0% | round(pass_rate * 100, 1) |
pass_rate (assumption) |
dropoff_active_pct |
3.0% | round((1 - active_rate) * 100, 1) |
active_rate (assumption) |
dropoff_ready_pct |
59.0% | round((1 - assessment_ready_rate) * 100, 1) |
assessment_ready_rate (assumption) |
dropoff_pass_pct |
20.0% | round((1 - pass_rate) * 100, 1) |
pass_rate (assumption) |
dropoff_cert_pct |
16.5% | round((1 - certification_rate) * 100, 1) |
certification_rate (assumption) |
cost_reconciliation_check |
$1.76B | round(cost_per_enrollee * enrolled_learners, 0) |
cost_per_enrollee (input), enrolled_learners (input) |
grad_rate_per_enrollee_trad |
26.5% | round(graduates_traditional/enrolled_learners * 100, 1) |
graduates_traditional (input), enrolled_learners (input) |
grad_rate_per_enrollee_wioa |
32.0% | round(graduates_wioa/enrolled_learners * 100, 1) |
graduates_wioa (input), enrolled_learners (input) |
definition_variance_dollars |
$32,053 | round(cost_per_grad_traditional - cost_per_grad_wioa, 2) |
cost_per_grad_traditional (input), cost_per_grad_wioa (input) |
definition_variance_pct |
20.6% | round((cost_per_grad_traditional - cost_per_grad_wioa)/cost_per_grad_wioa * 100, 1) |
cost_per_grad_traditional (input), cost_per_grad_wioa (input) |
cost_per_grad_in_earnings_yrs |
$11.2 | round(cost_per_grad_traditional/avg_post_sep_earnings, 1) |
cost_per_grad_traditional (input), avg_post_sep_earnings (input) |
budget_change_pct |
3.3% | round((total_program_cost - py2017_appropriations)/py2017_appropriations * 100, 1) |
total_program_cost (input), py2017_appropriations (input) |
enrollee_change_pct |
-41.1% | round((enrolled_learners - py2017_participants_approx)/py2017_participants_approx * 100, 1) |
enrolled_learners (input), py2017_participants_approx (input) |
cost_per_grad_change_factor |
$3.27 | round(cost_per_grad_traditional/py2017_cost_per_grad, 2) |
cost_per_grad_traditional (input), py2017_cost_per_grad (input) |
Prepared with SectorPrompts