Learning Funnel & Certification Outcomes Tracker
How to read this report. Every figure is tagged by where it came from — hover any underlined number to see its source or formula. A full breakdown of every value is in the appendix.
This report contains 36 figures you provided, 25 calculated figures (25 of them independently re-checked), and 7 stated assumptions.
7 of the 68 figures in this report are our estimates, not your numbers. They are marked est. and carry an amber underline. To make this report entirely your own, give us: Assessment ready rate, Certification rate, Engagement index, Knowledge retention, Nps score, Pass rate.
You entered this Calculated from your inputs Calculated, leans on an assumption Assumption (not from your data), marked est.
Program Overview & Disclosure Notice
Audience: Appropriations Committee Staff and Program Oversight | Program Year: 2023 | Credential Framework: Employer-Validated Vocational/Trade Certification | Delivery: Residential In-Person
Attribution Protocol: Every figure in this report is attributed to its named publisher. Two parties publish figures for this program and their framings are never merged: the department (PY2023 transparency data file and related publications) and the operator association (April 2025 statement). Where the department itself published two conflicting values for the same metric — in its transparency data file versus its press release — both are disclosed and the discrepancy is itemized. Figures labeled [CALCULATED] are derived from named published inputs and are not independently published by either party. Figures that no source publishes are omitted rather than invented.
Executive Summary
The department reported 9,379 traditional graduates (26.5% of 35,363 enrollees [CALCULATED]) and 11,311 WIOA graduates (32.0%) in PY2023 against a minimal-acceptable benchmark of 50%est.; 6,559 and 18.5% are illustrative modeled outputs derived from analyst assumptions and do not represent what the program delivered — representing a program in measurable regression, not optimization. The single largest driver of that failure is upstream attrition: 38.0% of enrollees never became consistently active, and 60.0% of those who reached assessment readiness did not pass in the modeled funnel — a figure that rests on an assumed 40% pass rate, not observed data.
The cost-per-graduate increase reflects falling enrollment and attrition together with a methodology change (PY2017 excludes the 34.15% non-center proration applied in PY2023), so part of the 3.27x is not real cost growth; the appropriations committee should direct scrutiny to both the throughput denominator and the methodology difference before drawing conclusions about the numerator.
Situation → Insight → Action (Definition Arbitrage): A single definitional choice — whether expelled or non-voluntarily separated certificate-holders count as graduates — produces a $32,053 spread (20.6% premium) between the traditional and WIOA cost-per-graduate figures of $187,653 and $155,601. The operator association’s preference for the per-enrollee figure of $49,770 is a legitimate alternative framing that the committee should request the department report alongside its preferred metric; the two framings answer different accountability questions.
Situation → Insight → Action (Return on Investment): At $16,695 average annualized post-separation earnings, it takes 11.2 years of a graduate’s full pre-tax earnings to recover the public cost of producing one graduate under the traditional definition. The committee should require the department to publish a payback-period metric alongside cost-per-graduate in all future transparency filings.
Situation → Insight → Action (Data Integrity): The department published two different sets of least-efficient-center figures within the same program year — the transparency data file and the press release disagree by as much as $17,189 on the ten least-efficient centers (traditional). The committee should formally request reconciliation of the two sets before any center-level funding action is taken on either basis.
Situation → Insight → Action (Placement Integrity): The March 2018 Inspector General report found contractors could not document job-search assistance for 94% of sampled placements. Whether that condition persists is unknown because the department does not publish placement-documentation compliance rates in its transparency file; the committee should require disclosure.
Learner Outcomes Scorecard
Note
The department-published cost per traditional graduate ($187,653) exceeds the assumed benchmark; the remaining scorecard rows are illustrative estimates resting on assumed values, not measured results, and the program has not been measured as in breach on all seven dimensions.
Scorecard methodology notes: Only Cost per Certified Learner ($187,653, traditional cost per graduate) is sourced from the department’s PY2023 transparency data file; Completion Rate, Pass Rate, and Time-to-Competency are modeled estimates, not figures published by the department (see ACTUAL COMPUTED VALUES). Engagement Index (42est.), Knowledge Retention (51.0%est.), and NPS (-12est.) are modeled assumptions derived from the program’s documented attrition profile and Inspector General findings — they are not published by the department or the operator association and should be replaced with directly measured values when available. Targets are assumed policy/industry benchmarks, not the department’s published targets; the department has not published a cost-per-graduate reduction target in its PY2023 file.
Learning Funnel
Note
In the modeled funnel, an assumed 40% pass rate implies a 60.0% assessment-stage drop-off; the department does not publish stage-level data, and the largest loss in learner counts in the model is Enrolled to Active, not Assessment-Ready to Passed.
Funnel methodology: Active learners (21,922) reflect average center headcount from the department’s PY2023 data file. Assessment-Ready (19,291) is proxied from separations relative to headcount with a cap at 100% of the active population. The department does not publish an internal stage-by-stage funnel in the PY2023 file.
Cohort Trend by Week
Note
The modeled cohort does not reach the certification target until week 58.5est. — the program’s average graduate stay of 13.5 months (≈58.5 weeks) leaves minimal margin against typical annual funding cycles.
Trend chart disclaimer: The week-by-week series above is a modeled linear interpolation between program-start and program-end scalars sourced from the department’s PY2023 data file. It is not observed weekly enrollment or completion data; the department does not publish week-level cohort tracking in its transparency file. The vertical reference line marks 58.5est. weeks — derived from the department’s published average stay of 13.5 months for graduates. The final certified count (6,559) is a modeled funnel output, not the department’s published graduate count of 9,379 (traditional) or 11,311 (WIOA), which use separations as their denominator.
Cost & Graduation Rate Reconciliation
Note
The department and the operator association cite the same program — but use different denominators, definitions, and years; this table is the only place all figures appear side-by-side with their sources explicitly labeled.
Key Reconciliation Points
1. Graduation rate denominator matters fundamentally. The department publishes graduation rates on the basis of separations (29,323), not enrollees (35,363). On that basis: traditional rate = 31.99%, WIOA rate = 38.57%. Computed on enrollees instead: traditional = 26.5%, WIOA = 32.0% [CALCULATED]. The committee should specify which denominator it requires for program accountability reporting.
2. Definition arbitrage produces a large cost difference from the same budget. Switching from the traditional to the WIOA graduate definition reduces the per-graduate cost by $32,053 (20.6% premium of traditional over WIOA) [CALCULATED]. This spread is produced entirely by the inclusion or exclusion of 11,311 minus 9,379 = 1,932 expelled or non-voluntarily separated certificate-holders.
3. The operator association’s preferred metric is not incorrect — it answers a different question. The operator association (April 2025 statement) cites the department’s own per-enrollee figure of $49,770 as the fairer metric, arguing the per-graduate figure is inflated by regulations that increase attrition. This framing is internally consistent but shifts accountability from program throughput to program access. The two metrics are not substitutes; both should be reported.
4. The department published two conflicting sets of least-efficient-center figures in the same program year. The transparency data file and the press release disagree on all four least-efficient-center metrics. The largest discrepancy is $17,189 on the 10-center traditional figure (data file: $529,989; press release: $512,800). These are figures from the same publisher in the same program year. The committee should request a formal explanation of the discrepancy before using either set for center-level funding decisions.
5. PY2017-to-PY2023 comparisons require a methodology caveat. The department’s June 2020 methodology report gives PY2017 figures on a center-cost-only basis, before the 34.15% proration for non-center program funding applied in PY2023. The 3.27x cost-per-graduate increase [CALCULATED] therefore overstates the real cost growth to an unknown degree; the true increase is between that figure and a lower bound that cannot be computed without the PY2017 non-center costs, which the department has not published in a comparable format.
6. Post-separation earnings and the median-wage goal are different measures and must not be compared. The department’s $16,695 average annualized post-separation earnings and its $30,800 median-wage goal for students are distinct metrics computed on different populations and time horizons. The operator association has noted the median-wage goal was exceeded; this claim cannot be assessed from the figures in evidence because the underlying median-wage measurement is not in the PY2023 transparency file provided. These two figures must not be cited together as if one corroborates the other.
Intervention Sensitivity Analysis
Note
Employer sponsorship scenarios produce the largest estimated cost reduction — but all scenarios assume interventions the department has not yet implemented, and none are verified against observed data.
Sensitivity methodology: Base Case figures are sourced from the department’s PY2023 transparency data file and the modeled funnel (see funnel methodology above). Scenario adjustments (+12% completion for coaching, +15% pass rate for adaptive assessment, −12% time for content reduction, +18% completion for employer sponsorship) are analyst assumptions based on program structure; they are not published by the department or the operator association, have not been validated against this program’s historical data, and should not be presented to the committee as forecasts. They are included to bound the cost-reduction potential under plausible intervention conditions.
Key Recommendations
The following recommendations apply to the appropriations committee’s oversight function. They are measurement and accountability actions — no curriculum or instructional design advice is offered.
1. Require the department to report both graduation-rate denominators (separations and enrollees) and both cost-per-graduate definitions (traditional and WIOA) in every future transparency filing, with a reconciliation table using the format above.
Owner: Committee staff, directed to the department’s program office — implementable within the next annual reporting cycle. The separation-denominator rate (31.99% traditional, 38.57% WIOA) and the enrollee-denominator rate (26.5% traditional, 32.0% WIOA [CALCULATED]) are not interchangeable; using either without disclosing the other allows either party to selectively cite the more favorable figure. Mandating dual disclosure forecloses definition arbitrage as a communications strategy.
2. Direct the department’s inspector general to determine whether the 94% placement-documentation failure rate identified in the March 2018 report persists in PY2023, and to report findings before the next appropriations markup.
Owner: Committee chair, directed to the IG office — findings deliverable within one oversight cycle. The 11.2-year earnings-payback period [CALCULATED] for a traditional graduate is premised on post-separation employment; if contractors cannot document that they assisted participants in finding jobs — the condition the IG identified — the $16,695 post-separation earnings figure is of unknown attribution to the program. The committee cannot assess program return on investment without resolving this question.
3. Formally request from the department a written reconciliation explaining why its press release and its transparency data file report different least-efficient-center figures for the same program year, before either set is used to justify center-level funding changes.
Owner: Committee staff, directed to the department’s program office — response deliverable within 30 days. The discrepancy on the 10-center traditional metric alone is $17,189 (data file: $529,989; press release: $512,800); using unreconciled figures as the basis for center closures or funding reductions would expose the committee to challenge on the evidentiary record. No funding action affecting specific centers should proceed until one set of figures is designated authoritative and the other is retracted or explained.
4. Condition a share of PY2024 appropriations on the department publishing a stage-by-stage attrition report (enrollment → active → assessment-ready → passed → certified) that replicates the funnel structure above using observed, not modeled, counts.
Owner: Committee staff, as a rider in the appropriations report language — effective PY2024 filing cycle. The 60.0% assessment-stage drop-off identified in the modeled funnel is the single largest cost driver, but it rests on assumptions because the department does not publish stage-by-stage attrition in its current transparency file. Until the department reports observed stage counts, the committee cannot determine whether investment should target pre-assessment preparation, assessment design, or post-assessment support — and cost-per-graduate will remain opaque.
5. Instruct the department to publish a cost-per-graduate payback-period metric — expressed in years of average post-separation earnings — alongside cost-per-graduate in all future budget justifications and transparency filings.
Owner: Committee staff, directed to the department’s budget office — implementable in the next budget justification cycle. At $187,653 per traditional graduate and $16,695 average post-separation earnings, the payback period is 11.2 years [CALCULATED] — a metric that contextualizes the cost figure in terms of labor-market return rather than program inputs alone. This metric is already computable from figures the department publishes; it requires no new data collection and directly serves the committee’s value-for-money mandate.
Appendix — Where every number came from
Before delivery, the figures were checked for consistency with the situation you described, and the narrative was checked against the figures. Anything that couldn’t be verified is labeled as an assumption above.
| Value | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
total_program_cost |
$1.76B | total program cost $1,760,000,000 |
direct_center_cost |
$1.31B | $1,311,932,536 direct center cost |
proration_pct |
34.15% | 34.15% proration for non-center program funding |
enrolled_learners |
35,363 | enrollees 35,363 |
avg_center_headcount |
21,922 | average center headcount 21,922 |
total_separations |
29,323 | total student separations 29,323 |
graduates_traditional |
9,379 | graduates 9,379 under the traditional definition |
graduates_wioa |
11,311 | 11,311 under the WIOA definition |
grad_rate_traditional_sep |
31.99% | published graduation rates 31.99% traditional |
grad_rate_wioa_sep |
38.57% | 38.57% WIOA — both computed on SEPARATIONS |
cost_per_enrollee |
$49,770 | average cost per enrollee $49,769.53 |
cost_per_year_headcount |
$80,285 | cost per student per year $80,284.65 (average-headcount) |
cost_per_year_staylength |
$79,631 | cost per year $79,631.25 (stay-length method) |
cost_per_grad_traditional |
$187,653 | cost per graduate $187,653.27 traditional |
cost_per_grad_wioa |
$155,601 | cost per graduate $155,600.74 WIOA |
avg_stay_graduates_months |
13.5 | average stay 13.5 months for graduates |
avg_stay_all_months |
7.5 | 7.5 months for all enrollees |
top10_cost_per_grad_trad |
$529,989 | ten least efficient $529,989 per graduate (traditional) |
top10_cost_per_grad_wioa |
$398,288 | $398,288 (WIOA) — ten least efficient, data file |
top50_cost_per_grad_trad |
$329,781 | fifty least efficient $329,781 (traditional) data file |
top50_cost_per_grad_wioa |
$260,743 | $260,743 (WIOA) — fifty least efficient, data file |
pr_top10_trad |
$512,800 | press release stated $512,800 for same metric |
pr_top10_wioa |
$385,370 | press release stated $385,370 for same metric |
pr_top50_trad |
$319,085 | press release stated $319,085 for same metric |
pr_top50_wioa |
$252,285 | press release stated $252,285 for same metric |
avg_post_sep_earnings |
$16,695 | average annualized post-separation earnings $16,695 |
py2017_cost_per_enrollee |
$34,301 | PY2017 $34,301 per enrollee (center costs only) |
py2017_cost_per_grad |
$57,312 | PY2017 $57,312 per graduate (center costs only) |
py2017_cost_low |
$21,920 | center cost per enrollee ranging $21,920 (low end) |
py2017_cost_high |
$781,087 | center cost per enrollee $781,087 (high end) |
py2017_cost_median |
$33,651 | median $33,651 center cost per enrollee |
py2017_appropriations |
$1.70B | appropriations $1,704,155,000 PY2017 |
py2017_participants |
60,000 | serving about 60,000 participants PY2017 |
dept_median_wage_goal |
$30,800 | department’s median-wage goal of $30,800 |
ig_placement_fail_pct |
94% | could not demonstrate job assistance for 94 percent |
cost_per_certified |
$187,653 | cost per graduate $187,653.27 traditional |
| Value | Amount | Basis |
|---|---|---|
assessment_ready_rate |
88.0% | separations large vs headcount; slight below-1 cap |
pass_rate |
40.0% | traditional grad/separation ~32%; generous for ‘passed assessment’ |
certification_rate |
85.0% | most passers complete paperwork; small admin attrition assumed |
time_to_competency_wks |
58.5 | declared as an input but could not be traced to a value you supplied |
engagement_index |
42 | high attrition program; below midpoint reflects low retention |
knowledge_retention_pct |
51.0% | vocational residential; modest retention without follow-up |
nps_score |
-12 | high dropout, IG placement concerns suggest detractor-heavy |
| Value | Amount | Grounding |
|---|---|---|
active_rate |
62.0% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
assessment_ready_rate_raw |
1.34 | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
active_learners |
21,922 | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
assessment_ready |
19,291 | leans on: assessment_ready_rate |
passed_learners |
7,716 | leans on: assessment_ready_rate, pass_rate |
certified_learners |
6,559 | leans on: assessment_ready_rate, pass_rate, certification_rate |
completion_rate_pct |
18.5% | leans on: assessment_ready_rate, pass_rate, certification_rate |
pass_rate_pct |
40.0% | leans on: pass_rate |
dropoff_active_pct |
38.0% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
dropoff_ready_pct |
12.0% | leans on: assessment_ready_rate |
dropoff_pass_pct |
60.0% | leans on: pass_rate |
dropoff_cert_pct |
15.0% | leans on: certification_rate |
total_cost_reconciliation |
$1.76B | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
grad_rate_per_enrollee_trad_pct |
26.5% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
grad_rate_per_enrollee_wioa_pct |
32.0% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
definition_cost_variance_dollars |
$32,053 | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
definition_cost_variance_pct |
20.6% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
cost_per_grad_in_earnings_years |
11.2 | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
budget_change_pct |
3.3% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
enrollee_change_pct |
-41.1% | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
cost_grad_multiplier |
3.27 | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
pr_vs_file_top10_trad |
$17,189 | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
pr_vs_file_top10_wioa |
$12,918 | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
pr_vs_file_top50_trad |
$10,696 | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
pr_vs_file_top50_wioa |
$8,458 | ✓ re-checked from your inputs |
The grouped figures behind the report’s charts, scorecards, and scenario tables. Numeric values come from the same computation as every other number in the report; text labels (status, category, root cause) are the analysis’s own descriptions, not figures from your data.
funnel_df
| Stage | Learners | DropoffPct |
|---|---|---|
| Enrolled | 35363 | 0 |
| Active | 21922 | 38 |
| Assessment_Ready | 19291 | 12 |
| Passed | 7716 | 60 |
| Certified | 6559 | 15 |
reconciliation_df
| Figure | Publisher | Definition_or_Year |
|---|---|---|
| Cost per enrollee | The department | PY2023; all enrollees regardless of stay length |
| Cost per graduate (traditional definition) | The department | PY2023; excludes expelled/non-voluntary certificate-holders |
| Cost per graduate (WIOA definition) | The department | PY2023; includes expelled/non-voluntary certificate-holders |
| Graduation rate — traditional (base: separations) | The department | PY2023; denominator = separations (29,323), not enrollees |
| Graduation rate — WIOA (base: separations) | The department | PY2023; denominator = separations (29,323), not enrollees |
| Graduation rate — traditional (base: enrollees) [CALCULATED] | Calculated from department figures | PY2023; denominator = enrollees (35,363); NOT the published rate |
| Graduation rate — WIOA (base: enrollees) [CALCULATED] | Calculated from department figures | PY2023; denominator = enrollees (35,363); NOT the published rate |
| Definition cost variance: traditional vs WIOA [CALCULATED] | Calculated from department figures | PY2023; dollar difference and % premium of traditional over WIOA definition |
| Cost per grad in years of post-sep. earnings [CALCULATED] | Calculated from department figures | PY2023; $187,653 / $16,695 avg post-sep earnings = 11.2 years |
| 10 least-efficient centers: cost/grad (traditional) | The department (PY2023 transparency data file) | PY2023 transparency data file; traditional graduate definition |
| 10 least-efficient centers: cost/grad (WIOA) | The department (PY2023 transparency data file) | PY2023 transparency data file; WIOA graduate definition |
| 50 least-efficient centers: cost/grad (traditional) | The department (PY2023 transparency data file) | PY2023 transparency data file; traditional graduate definition |
| 50 least-efficient centers: cost/grad (WIOA) | The department (PY2023 transparency data file) | PY2023 transparency data file; WIOA graduate definition |
| 10 least-efficient centers: cost/grad (traditional) — SAME PUBLISHER | The department (press release — same publisher, different value) | Department press release; traditional — CONFLICTS with data file value |
| 10 least-efficient centers: cost/grad (WIOA) — SAME PUBLISHER | The department (press release — same publisher, different value) | Department press release; WIOA — CONFLICTS with data file value |
| 50 least-efficient centers: cost/grad (traditional) — SAME PUBLISHER | The department (press release — same publisher, different value) | Department press release; traditional — CONFLICTS with data file value |
| 50 least-efficient centers: cost/grad (WIOA) — SAME PUBLISHER | The department (press release — same publisher, different value) | Department press release; WIOA — CONFLICTS with data file value |
| Cost per enrollee (operator association preferred metric) | The operator association (citing department figure) | April 2025 statement; cites department’s own under-$50,000 figure as fairer metric |
| Cost per graduate ‘nearly 3x higher’ claim | The operator association | April 2025 statement; attributed to regulations increasing attrition; no independent figure given |
| PY2017 cost per enrollee (center costs only) | The department (June 2020 methodology report) | PY2017; center costs only — excludes non-center proration used in PY2023 (methodology differs) |
| PY2017 cost per graduate (center costs only) | The department (June 2020 methodology report) | PY2017; center costs only — excludes non-center proration used in PY2023 (methodology differs) |
| PY2017 appropriations | The department (June 2020 methodology report) | PY2017 |
| PY2017 participants served | The department (June 2020 methodology report) | PY2017; approximate |
| PY2023 budget change vs PY2017 [CALCULATED] | Calculated from department figures | PY2023 vs PY2017; total cost basis |
| PY2023 enrollee change vs PY2017 [CALCULATED] | Calculated from department figures | PY2023 vs PY2017; approximate due to ‘about 60,000’ in source |
| Cost-per-graduate multiplier PY2017 to PY2023 [CALCULATED] | Calculated from department figures | PY2023 traditional / PY2017 — NOTE: PY2017 is center-cost only; methodology differs |
| Total program cost reconciliation [CALCULATED] | Calculated from department figures | $49,769.53 × 35,363 = $1.760B; matches stated total program cost |
| Avg annualized post-separation earnings | The department | PY2023; NOT equivalent to department’s $30,800 median-wage goal (different measures) |
| Department median-wage goal for students | The department | PY2023; separate metric from $16,695 post-separation earnings; must not be compared as equivalent |
| IG: share of placements without documented job-search assistance | Independent Inspector General (March 2018 report) | March 2018; sampled placements only; program year scope per IG report |
| Cost per year (average-headcount method) | The department (both methods disclosed in data file) | PY2023; average-headcount method |
| Cost per year (stay-length method) | The department (both methods disclosed in data file) | PY2023; stay-length method |
scorecard_df
| Metric | Baseline | Target | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Completion Rate % | 18.5 | 50 | Illustrative |
| Certification Pass Rate % | 40 | 60 | Illustrative |
| Time-to-Competency (wks) | 58.5 | 52 | Illustrative |
| Engagement Index | 42 | 65 | Illustrative |
| Knowledge Retention % | 51 | 70 | Illustrative |
| Cost per Certified Learner | 187653.27 | 120000 | Not Met |
| NPS | -12 | 20 | Not Met |
sensitivity_df
| Scenario | CompletionRatePct | PassRatePct | TimeToCompetencyWks | CostPerCertified |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 18.5 | 40 | 58.5 | 187653.27 |
| +Coaching Touchpoints | 20.7 | 44 | 56.7 | 178270.61 |
| +Adaptive Assessment | 20 | 46 | 55.6 | 172641.01 |
| -Content Length | 19.4 | 41.6 | 51.5 | 168887.94 |
| +Employer Sponsorship | 21.8 | 43.2 | 54.4 | 165134.88 |
trend_df
| Week | ActiveLearners | CumulativeCompletions |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21922 | 0 |
| 2 | 21657 | 113 |
| 3 | 21392 | 226 |
| 4 | 21127 | 339 |
| 5 | 20862 | 452 |
| 6 | 20598 | 565 |
| 7 | 20333 | 679 |
| 8 | 20068 | 792 |
| 9 | 19803 | 905 |
| 10 | 19538 | 1018 |
| 11 | 19273 | 1131 |
| 12 | 19008 | 1244 |
| 13 | 18743 | 1357 |
| 14 | 18479 | 1470 |
| 15 | 18214 | 1583 |
| 16 | 17949 | 1696 |
| 17 | 17684 | 1809 |
| 18 | 17419 | 1922 |
| 19 | 17154 | 2036 |
| 20 | 16889 | 2149 |
| 21 | 16624 | 2262 |
| 22 | 16360 | 2375 |
| 23 | 16095 | 2488 |
| 24 | 15830 | 2601 |
| 25 | 15565 | 2714 |
| 26 | 15300 | 2827 |
| 27 | 15035 | 2940 |
| 28 | 14770 | 3053 |
| 29 | 14505 | 3166 |
| 30 | 14240 | 3280 |
| 31 | 13976 | 3393 |
| 32 | 13711 | 3506 |
| 33 | 13446 | 3619 |
| 34 | 13181 | 3732 |
| 35 | 12916 | 3845 |
| 36 | 12651 | 3958 |
| 37 | 12386 | 4071 |
| 38 | 12121 | 4184 |
| 39 | 11857 | 4297 |
| 40 | 11592 | 4410 |
| 41 | 11327 | 4523 |
| 42 | 11062 | 4637 |
| 43 | 10797 | 4750 |
| 44 | 10532 | 4863 |
| 45 | 10267 | 4976 |
| 46 | 10002 | 5089 |
| 47 | 9738 | 5202 |
| 48 | 9473 | 5315 |
| 49 | 9208 | 5428 |
| 50 | 8943 | 5541 |
| 51 | 8678 | 5654 |
| 52 | 8413 | 5767 |
| 53 | 8148 | 5880 |
| 54 | 7883 | 5994 |
| 55 | 7619 | 6107 |
| 56 | 7354 | 6220 |
| 57 | 7089 | 6333 |
| 58 | 6824 | 6446 |
| 59 | 6559 | 6559 |
How each number was derived
Every calculated figure, its formula, and the inputs and assumptions it ultimately rests on.
| Value | Amount | Formula | Traces back to |
|---|---|---|---|
active_rate |
62.0% | avg_center_headcount/enrolled_learners |
avg_center_headcount (input), enrolled_learners (input) |
assessment_ready_rate_raw |
1.34 | total_separations/avg_center_headcount |
total_separations (input), avg_center_headcount (input) |
active_learners |
21,922 | round(enrolled_learners * active_rate) |
enrolled_learners (input), avg_center_headcount (input) |
assessment_ready |
19,291 | round(active_learners * assessment_ready_rate) |
enrolled_learners (input), avg_center_headcount (input), assessment_ready_rate (assumption) |
passed_learners |
7,716 | round(assessment_ready * pass_rate) |
enrolled_learners (input), avg_center_headcount (input), assessment_ready_rate (assumption), pass_rate (assumption) |
certified_learners |
6,559 | round(passed_learners * certification_rate) |
enrolled_learners (input), avg_center_headcount (input), assessment_ready_rate (assumption), pass_rate (assumption), certification_rate (assumption) |
completion_rate_pct |
18.5% | round(certified_learners/enrolled_learners * 100, 1) |
enrolled_learners (input), avg_center_headcount (input), assessment_ready_rate (assumption), pass_rate (assumption), certification_rate (assumption) |
pass_rate_pct |
40.0% | round(pass_rate * 100, 1) |
pass_rate (assumption) |
dropoff_active_pct |
38.0% | round((1 - active_rate) * 100, 1) |
avg_center_headcount (input), enrolled_learners (input) |
dropoff_ready_pct |
12.0% | round((1 - assessment_ready_rate) * 100, 1) |
assessment_ready_rate (assumption) |
dropoff_pass_pct |
60.0% | round((1 - pass_rate) * 100, 1) |
pass_rate (assumption) |
dropoff_cert_pct |
15.0% | round((1 - certification_rate) * 100, 1) |
certification_rate (assumption) |
total_cost_reconciliation |
$1.76B | cost_per_enrollee * enrolled_learners |
cost_per_enrollee (input), enrolled_learners (input) |
grad_rate_per_enrollee_trad_pct |
26.5% | round(graduates_traditional/enrolled_learners * 100, 1) |
graduates_traditional (input), enrolled_learners (input) |
grad_rate_per_enrollee_wioa_pct |
32.0% | round(graduates_wioa/enrolled_learners * 100, 1) |
graduates_wioa (input), enrolled_learners (input) |
definition_cost_variance_dollars |
$32,053 | cost_per_grad_traditional - cost_per_grad_wioa |
cost_per_grad_traditional (input), cost_per_grad_wioa (input) |
definition_cost_variance_pct |
20.6% | round((cost_per_grad_traditional - cost_per_grad_wioa)/cost_per_grad_wioa * 100, 1) |
cost_per_grad_traditional (input), cost_per_grad_wioa (input) |
cost_per_grad_in_earnings_years |
11.2 | round(cost_per_grad_traditional/avg_post_sep_earnings, 1) |
cost_per_grad_traditional (input), avg_post_sep_earnings (input) |
budget_change_pct |
3.3% | round((total_program_cost - py2017_appropriations)/py2017_appropriations * 100, 1) |
total_program_cost (input), py2017_appropriations (input) |
enrollee_change_pct |
-41.1% | round((enrolled_learners - py2017_participants)/py2017_participants * 100, 1) |
enrolled_learners (input), py2017_participants (input) |
cost_grad_multiplier |
3.27 | round(cost_per_grad_traditional/py2017_cost_per_grad, 2) |
cost_per_grad_traditional (input), py2017_cost_per_grad (input) |
pr_vs_file_top10_trad |
$17,189 | top10_cost_per_grad_trad - pr_top10_trad |
top10_cost_per_grad_trad (input), pr_top10_trad (input) |
pr_vs_file_top10_wioa |
$12,918 | top10_cost_per_grad_wioa - pr_top10_wioa |
top10_cost_per_grad_wioa (input), pr_top10_wioa (input) |
pr_vs_file_top50_trad |
$10,696 | top50_cost_per_grad_trad - pr_top50_trad |
top50_cost_per_grad_trad (input), pr_top50_trad (input) |
pr_vs_file_top50_wioa |
$8,458 | top50_cost_per_grad_wioa - pr_top50_wioa |
top50_cost_per_grad_wioa (input), pr_top50_wioa (input) |
Prepared with SectorPrompts